Ulta Beauty Stock Performance

ULTA Stock  USD 647.36  16.26  2.58%   
On a scale of 0 to 100, Ulta Beauty holds a performance score of 12. The entity has a beta of 0.68, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Ulta Beauty's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ulta Beauty is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Ulta Beauty's skewness, and the relationship between the potential upside and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether Ulta Beauty's existing price patterns will revert.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Good

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Ulta Beauty are ranked lower than 12 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite somewhat inconsistent basic indicators, Ulta Beauty sustained solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
2.58
Five Day Return
(5.41)
Year To Date Return
4.41
Ten Year Return
258.51
All Time Return
2.1 K
Dividend Date
2012-05-15
Ex Dividend Date
2012-03-16
1
Insider Trading
12/05/2025
2
Disposition of 340 shares by Halligan Catherine Ann of Ulta Beauty subject to Rule 16b-3
12/15/2025
3
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6
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01/22/2026
8
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10
EFG Asset Management North America Corp. Acquires 1,145 Shares of Ulta Beauty Inc. ULTA
01/27/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow766.6 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-383.1 M

Ulta Beauty Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  51,743  in Ulta Beauty on November 1, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  11,367  from holding Ulta Beauty or generate 21.97% return on investment over 90 days. Ulta Beauty is currently generating 0.3493% in daily expected returns and assumes 2.2149% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 19% of stocks are less volatile than Ulta, and 93% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Ulta Beauty is expected to generate 2.97 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 2.97 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.16 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.08 per unit of risk.

Ulta Beauty Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Ulta Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 647.36 90 days 647.36 
about 13.93
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ulta Beauty to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 13.93 (This Ulta Beauty probability density function shows the probability of Ulta Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Ulta Beauty has a beta of 0.68. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Ulta Beauty average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ulta Beauty will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ulta Beauty has an alpha of 0.2782, implying that it can generate a 0.28 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Ulta Beauty Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Ulta Beauty

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ulta Beauty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ulta Beauty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
628.89631.10633.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
567.99721.20723.41
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
606.48608.69610.91
Details
28 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
613.87674.58748.79
Details

Ulta Beauty Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ulta Beauty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ulta Beauty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ulta Beauty, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ulta Beauty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.28
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.68
σ
Overall volatility
60.04
Ir
Information ratio 0.12

Ulta Beauty Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ulta Beauty for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ulta Beauty can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 100.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: EFG Asset Management North America Corp. Acquires 1,145 Shares of Ulta Beauty Inc. ULTA

Ulta Beauty Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ulta Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ulta Beauty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ulta Beauty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding47.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments703.2 M

Ulta Beauty Fundamentals Growth

Ulta Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Ulta Beauty, and Ulta Beauty fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Ulta Stock performance.

About Ulta Beauty Performance

By analyzing Ulta Beauty's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Ulta Beauty's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Ulta Beauty has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Ulta Beauty has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 93.59  78.34 
Return On Tangible Assets 0.18  0.10 
Return On Capital Employed 0.34  0.19 
Return On Assets 0.18  0.10 
Return On Equity 0.43  0.46 

Things to note about Ulta Beauty performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Ulta Beauty for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Ulta Beauty help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 100.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: EFG Asset Management North America Corp. Acquires 1,145 Shares of Ulta Beauty Inc. ULTA
Evaluating Ulta Beauty's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Ulta Beauty's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Ulta Beauty's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Ulta Beauty's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Ulta Beauty's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Ulta Beauty's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Ulta Beauty's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Ulta Beauty's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Ulta Beauty's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Ulta Beauty's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Ulta Beauty's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for Ulta Stock analysis

When running Ulta Beauty's price analysis, check to measure Ulta Beauty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ulta Beauty is operating at the current time. Most of Ulta Beauty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ulta Beauty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ulta Beauty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ulta Beauty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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